I agree that pipeline management and forecasts that use close-probability percentages are highly subjective; even when you are talking about expected revenue, how can you claim 50% of a deal that hasn’t closed? It’s going to be either 0% or 100%, an axiom that is often cited by sales methodology firms such as The TAS Group.

Another axiom that holds true is “The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior.” Unfortunately, it’s really hard for sales teams to accurately measure 30/60/90 day historical close rates but it’s precisely that data-driven approach – along with what the reps say and management overrides – that lead to a more accurate forecast. Many of our customers at Cloud9 Analytics use our Pipeline Accelerator Suite to add this historical trending perspective to the “art and science” of forecasting and pipeline management but I also like your ideas to further qualify the current opportunities based on objective criteria that have to do with the here-and-now. So maybe we go from triangulated forecasting to quadrilateral forecasting!